Contents · 3 sections+
The era of pandemic pay wars is dead. And most people have not processed what replaces it.
Global salary budgets are settling at 3.2–3.4% for 2026. Below inflation in most markets. Companies are not panicking. They are deliberately concentrating money on a small group of people they actually cannot afford to lose, and giving everyone else a cost-of-living number and calling it a merit raise.
The question is which group you are in.
I.The AI Divide Is the Only Story That Matters
Two camps are emerging fast.
Camp one: the people who manage, govern, and build on top of AI. Not "I use ChatGPT." Professionals who can run agentic AI workflows, architect cloud data pipelines, and guide organisations through the governance mess that comes with it. These people are getting real, structural pay premiums. Companies are fighting over them.
Camp two: everyone doing routine, rules-based SaaS work. That is being handed to AI agents. Not eventually. Now. If your job description reads like a series of predictable steps inside a software platform, you are being optimised out of it.
The underlying shift: companies are moving from job-based pay to skills-based pay. Your title stops mattering. Your verified capabilities are the new currency.
II.What the Markets Are Actually Showing
-UAE
This one is complicated right now.
Iranian strikes have targeted UAE infrastructure, including the Jebel Ali port area in Dubai. A drone strike near Dubai International Airport caused temporary flight suspensions, with airspace closures implemented across the UAE. The regional picture is volatile.
And yet, the underlying talent dynamics have not reversed. The workforce grew 9% pre-conflict, new company formation was up 14.5%, and 65% of professionals were already considering switching roles. Compliance officers and fintech specialists were seeing 10–15% localised salary growth, driven by regulatory expansion and growth in asset management.
ADNOC's CEO called the Hormuz situation "economic terrorism against every nation." For professionals in transformation consulting, risk, and compliance, the demand for their skill set has just accelerated. Uncertainty creates more need for these people, not less.
-Singapore
Supply chain analytics and cloud logistics are the hottest areas, with 5–15% salary increments for the right profiles. Finance and fintech movers are still getting 10–15% for switching roles. Those who stay? Up to 5%.
The math on loyalty remains brutal. Singapore rewards mobility and deep specialisation. If you are a generalist who has not moved in three years, that is your benchmark.
Sales compensation is also shifting. 50/50 and 60/40 base-variable splits are becoming standard in tech. High performers gain. Comfort-seekers do not.
-Netherlands
The Dutch market is facing a talent-scarcity crisis layered on top of real inflation. Standard salary offers are not moving candidates. What is moving them: flexible work, the Individual Choice Budget (IKB), where employees customise their own benefits mix, and genuine autonomy.
Procurement and supply chain roles are seeing a mismatch between what candidates expect and what budgets allow. That friction is not going away.
III.The One Thing Coming That Companies Are Ignoring
The EU Pay Transparency Directive is not a future problem. Companies that have not built clear, documented, gender-neutral criteria for how they set pay will face a reckoning. Every differential will need to be defensible.
The power dynamic is shifting. That is either a threat or a tool, depending on which side of the information gap you are on.
Generalists will tread water. Specialists with AI fluency, in the right markets, with the right negotiation approach, they will grow. Technically, everyone else will get a raise, but actually fall behind.
Know which category you are in before your next conversation with your manager.